CovidLaws // Belgium // Risk map

COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment

Calculating the chance that one or more members of a group is/are infected.

Group size:

Base number:

Cases per 100k population in the past...


Ascertainment bias: incidence is multiplied by this number.

Age groups (empty=all)

Province 0 - 9 10 - 19 20 - 29 30 - 39 40 - 49 50 - 59 60 - 69 70 - 79 80 - 89 90plus All

Based on the model of the Georgia Institute of Technology.
Base number: Positive tests in the past X days per 100k population. CDC recommends to use past 10 days.
Bias: As default, the value of three is set. This number depends on the positivity rate, for Belgium I assume that for one tested person, there are 2 infected but not tested.
For the age group ratio, the values of all Belgium is taken and calculated down to province size.

Formula used: 100 - (((1-(1/(100000/(cases*bias)))) ** groupsize) * 100)

Cases data is fetched every day at 10am from

Thanks to Ricus van der Kwast from The Corona Diaries for the assistance.