CovidLaws // Belgium // Risk map
COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment
Calculating the chance that one or more members of a group is/are infected.
Group size: |
Base number:Cases per 100k population in the past... |
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Bias:Ascertainment bias: incidence is multiplied by this number. |
Age groups (empty=all)Age groups
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| Province | 0 - 9 | 10 - 19 | 20 - 29 | 30 - 39 | 40 - 49 | 50 - 59 | 60 - 69 | 70 - 79 | 80 - 89 | 90plus | All |
Based on the model of the Georgia Institute of Technology.
Base number: Positive tests in the past X days per 100k population. CDC recommends to use past 10 days.
Bias: As default, the value of three is set. This number depends on the positivity rate, for Belgium I assume that for one tested person, there are 2 infected but not tested.
For the age group ratio, the values of all Belgium is taken and calculated down to province size.
Formula used: 100 - (((1-(1/(100000/(cases*bias)))) ** groupsize) * 100)
Cases data is fetched every day at 10am from Sciensano.be
Thanks to Ricus van der Kwast from The Corona Diaries for the assistance.